Flipping the Numbers: How Data in 3D Can Help Democrats Win Competitive NC Districts

In the competitive landscape of modern political campaigns, data-driven decision-making can be the difference between holding the line and flipping the map. Analyzing the 2024 North Carolina U.S. House election results reveals exactly how much more strategic Democratic turnout could have transformed the outcome — and how Data in 3D's predictive modeling can deliver those gains.

The 2024 Challenge: Two Seats Within Reach

North Carolina's new congressional map, approved ahead of the 2024 elections, created a tougher playing field for Democrats — yet several GOP-held districts were still within striking distance:

Flipping just two of these districts would have reshaped the NC delegation and created more competitive ground for 2026 and 2028. Our analysis shows that achieving this would have required ~250,000–270,000 additional Democratic votes statewide — roughly a 4.5% increase in overall Democratic turnout — concentrated in just a few dozen high-value precinct clusters.

The Opportunity: Targeted Turnout and Persuasion

Traditional, one-size-fits-all voter outreach cannot deliver these margins. The challenge is identifying the voters who matter most in competitive districts and engaging them with messages that resonate.

This is where Data in 3D's predictive modeling transforms campaigns:

Key Questions Answered

• Which voters are most likely to turn out if contacted?
• Which persuadable voters could switch based on targeted messaging?
• Which precincts have the highest impact potential?
• How should limited resources be allocated for maximum ROI?

Data in 3D's Predictive Solution

Our modeling approach combines diverse datasets and advanced machine learning to create actionable voter insights.

Data Integration

We combine:

Three Core Models

Implementation Strategy

By combining these models, Data in 3D empowers campaigns to focus resources where they move the needle most:

Targeted Voter Outreach

• Identify high-value voters in NC‑11, NC‑07, and NC‑09 — voters with moderate turnout propensity but high persuasion potential
• Focus on precincts where a 5–10% turnout increase could flip local margins and shift the district-wide balance

Personalized Messaging

Using issue-priority modeling, campaigns can deploy multiple tailored message variants:

Projected Results With Data in 3D

Key Principles for NC Campaign Success

1. Data Quality Is Paramount

Clean, integrated data ensures maximum accuracy and better targeting.

2. Continuous Model Refinement

Feedback loops update models in real time, incorporating field and canvassing results.

3. Seamless Integration With Field Operations

Predictive insights enhance, not replace, established workflows.

The Bottom Line

The 2024 North Carolina U.S. House elections prove that Democrats can compete — and win — with smarter data strategies.

Flipping just two districts like NC‑11 and NC‑07 would have required:

• A 4.5% increase in Democratic turnout statewide
• Precision GOTV in targeted high-value precincts
• Persuasion-driven messaging to mobilize swing voters

Data in 3D makes this possible by turning raw voter data into strategic advantage.